On October 22, 2026, a buyer of critical materials with orders running past mid-November has two sets of dates and no document that reconciles them. The political deadline for the Kuala Lumpur joint arrangement is January 10, 2027, not for the suspension itself: on September 28 MOFCOM said China and the United States had agreed to extend the arrangement of October 2025 to that date, and on September 23 the US Treasury Secretary said "the Busan agreement" would run to the same date. The legal texts say otherwise. MOFCOM and Customs Announcement No. 70 of 2025, which suspends China's October 2025 export-control additions, still reads "until November 10, 2026". MOFCOM Announcement No. 72 of 2025, which suspends the US-specific prohibition on gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials, still reads "until November 27, 2026". MOFCOM's list of policy releases, read on October 22 and running to October 20, contains no instrument moving either date.
This article does not predict how that resolves. It sets out what the texts say, what each legal state would look like after each date, and what a buyer should have in place before November 10. Which licence clock governs a given shipment is in our licence-deadline guide; the chronology since 2023 is in the export-controls timeline.
Disclaimer: This article is general practical information, not legal, customs or export-control advice. It describes public texts and statements as of October 22, 2026, and that status may change within days. Our reading of how the texts apply is analysis, not official interpretation; confirm specific transactions with the exporter, a licensed customs broker and qualified counsel.
Two Suspensions, Two Sentences
No. 70, dated November 7, 2025, has one operative sentence: with approval, "from today until November 10, 2026", MOFCOM and Customs Announcements No. 55, 56, 57 and 58 and MOFCOM Announcements No. 61 and 62 of 2025 are suspended. No. 72, dated November 9, 2025, also has one: "from today until November 27, 2026", Article 2 of MOFCOM Announcement No. 46 of 2024 is suspended. Neither has a clause on extension, transition or goods in transit.
They are separate clocks. No. 70 covers the October 2025 additions for all destinations. No. 72 covers a December 2024 measure aimed only at the United States, issued two days later as a separate announcement. Our gallium and germanium scorecard sets out both dates; our graphite analysis adds that November 27 is also a graphite date for US-bound shipments.
Nos. 55–58, 61 and 62 are all dated October 9, 2025. Several things sit on neither clock: Announcement No. 18 of April 4, 2025 (samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, yttrium), never suspended; the 2023 gallium, germanium and graphite layers; and Article 1 of No. 46, on US military users. November 10 does not end China's rare earth controls; on the text it ends the suspension of the October 2025 additions. Tungsten is on neither date, as our tungsten piece explains.
One consequence follows from the dates. Nos. 55–58 were due on November 8, 2025, and No. 70 suspended them on November 7; No. 61's 0.1% and technology parts were due on December 1. None of those has ever been in force, and if they return, they return with effective dates already in the past. (No. 62 and No. 61's re-export part were nominally in force October 9 to November 7, 2025.)
Why the Political Date and the Legal Date Differ
The September 28 statement was an explanation by a senior official of MOFCOM's Department of American and Oceanian Affairs of the eighth round of talks, held September 20–23. It is a 解读 (explanation), not a 公告 (announcement). Its operative line says the two sides, "on the basis of extending the Kuala Lumpur joint arrangement to January 10, 2027", will keep working towards a mutually agreed solution. It recalls that the 2025 arrangement suspended "certain tariff and non-tariff measures" to November 10, 2026, and says the sides aim to settle the extension through high-level engagement before year-end.
It does not name export controls, rare earths, No. 70, No. 72, port fees or Section 301. The Treasury Secretary spoke of "the Busan agreement"; the press called it the truce. The White House fact sheet of September 25 gives rare earths one sentence: the two sides "continue to work on U.S. concerns regarding supply chain shortages related to rare earths and other critical minerals, with the goal of ensuring shipment levels return to appropriate levels." It does not mention the extension, the arrangement or any date. Neither government has published a list of what the extension covers. Some press reports say the rare earth suspension was extended; the primary texts we read do not.
Neither government has mentioned November 27. Whether "the joint arrangement to January 10" covers No. 72 has not been stated by either side.
The US text has the same gap. The Federal Register notice suspending BIS's Affiliates Rule ends the suspension on November 9, 2026, so the rule applies again from November 10 unless BIS acts. As of law-firm updates of October 1 and October 13, BIS had published no extension; one cites an unnamed US official saying it will run to January 10, 2027. A Federal Register search on October 22 found no BIS notice extending it, though notices posted ahead of publication would not show.
There is a precedent for timing, and only for timing. In 2025 the instruments came late: No. 70 one day before Nos. 55–58 were due, No. 72 two days after No. 70. October 2026 has brought MOFCOM Announcements No. 48 to 52 of 2026 (a draft technology catalogue revision, drone items, dredger items, a customs procedure, and one we could not identify), and none we identified touches the suspension. A last-minute instrument would match last year's pattern; that is not a forecast that one will come.
The Morning After: Three Dates, Three Readings
Each date can be read three ways: (a) a formal instrument extends the suspension; (b) the political extension stands but the text is unamended; (c) neither. Scenario (b) is the state of the world on the date of this article, and until something is published it is the state every buyer is planning in.
November 11, 2026
(a) Formal extension. A new announcement amends No. 70 or issues a fresh suspension to January 10, 2027 or later; Nos. 55–58, 61 and 62 stay suspended.
- Known: this is the instrument type used in November 2025. Everything outside No. 70 still needs a licence.
- Nobody has said: whether it will be issued, when, or to what date.
(b) Political extension, No. 70 unamended. On the text, the suspension ends with November 10, and the suspended announcements, whose effective dates have passed, would read as applying from November 11. We found no text giving the September 28 explanation legal effect over No. 70.
- Known: what would return, item by item, is in the table.
- Nobody has said: whether MOFCOM and customs would refrain from enforcing, issue a late (possibly retroactive) instrument, or enforce.
(c) Lapse. The legal result is the same as (b), without political cover. In (b) or (c) alike, the Affiliates Rule returns on the US side on November 10 under its own text unless BIS acts.
- Known: the 2024 dual-use regulation's procedure would apply: up to 45 working days of review, single licences valid up to one year, general licences up to three.
- Nobody has said, in (b) or (c): whether applications for currently suspended items can be filed or accepted before November 10; how goods declared, loaded or in transit on November 10–11 are treated; whether No. 61's start dates count as passed or restart; whether the No. 61 channel for foreign applicants would be open and how long it would take; whether there is a grace period. We found no MOFCOM FAQ on resuming a suspended measure, and no customs guidance on which date decides a shipment's treatment.
November 28, 2026
(a) Formal extension. Article 2 stays suspended. US-bound gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials still need a licence, but are not refused in principle.
(b) or (c). Article 2 of No. 46 applies again on its text: licences for these items to the United States are "in principle not permitted", and graphite dual-use items to the US face stricter review. For other destinations nothing changes on this date.
- Known gap: the September 28 statement does not mention November 27, and an instrument for November 10 need not cover it, since No. 72 is separate.
January 11, 2027
In (a), everything depends on the new instrument's end date, which nobody has seen. In (b), the political date passes and the legal state is whatever November 10 and 27 already made it. Neither reading is a forecast.
What to Have Done Before November 10
Map every line item to its instrument. For each item on an open order, record which announcement controls it today and which would after a lapse: No. 18 or No. 57 for a rare earth oxide or salt, No. 58 for anode or cathode material, No. 55 for diamond micropowder, the 2023 layer for natural graphite, gallium or germanium. The element-by-element split between No. 18 and No. 57 is in our rare earth compounds import guide; the oxide and salt forms we quote, each screened against the current list before we reply, are on our rare earth oxides and salts page. Then mark the destination: anything with a US end user has a second date, November 27.
Key the contract to whichever date governs, and define the trigger yourself. No source says whether the declaration, loading or departure date decides a shipment's treatment, so do not leave that to the law. Name an observable event — for example, "if, on the date of the Chinese export declaration, the goods require a licence not required at the contract date" — and allocate the consequences: delivery extended by the licence period, the right to split or re-route, and a price or cancellation mechanism if the licence is refused. Do not write November 10 or January 10 into it. The wider clause set is in our procurement strategy guide.
Work out the licence timing, and ask the exporter. Article 17 gives MOFCOM 45 working days from acceptance, excluding time for identification, expert consultation and on-site verification. That is about nine calendar weeks, so an application filed today for an item controlled from November 11 would not normally be decided by November 10. Whether an application for a currently suspended item can be accepted at all, we could not confirm; ask your exporter in writing whether it has tried. The clock and the buyer's inputs are in our licence application guide. A single licence lasts up to one year, and changing a key element (item, destination, end user or end use) means a new application, surrender of the old licence and paused exports, so get those four right before the first filing.
Have the end-user certificate ready. End-user and end-use certificates come from the end user, and MOFCOM may require government certification. The end use may not change, nor the item pass to a third party, without approval; a forged or expired certificate stops exports. A certificate drafted now for each order that could fall under No. 57, 58 or 61 takes one step off the critical path.
If you resell, check your No. 61 exposure. No. 61 has two reaches. One is foreign-made rare earth magnets and sputtering targets containing 0.1% or more by value of the Chinese-origin items on its Part 1 list: seven metals, four alloys, and dysprosium and terbium oxide, the only two oxides on it, as our import guide notes. The other, in force from publication until No. 70 suspended it, is the re-export of those Chinese-origin items themselves from outside China. A Korean firm that incorporates or resells such material should keep origin records per lot. No. 61 itself says how a foreign re-exporter applies: through MOFCOM's dual-use licence system under Article 16 of the 2024 regulation, in Chinese, directly or through a Chinese enterprise, intermediary, chamber or association. Whether that channel would be open on the morning after a lapse, and how long it would take, no source says.
Build the new customs procedure into lead times. MOFCOM and Customs Announcement No. 52 of 2026, effective on publication on October 19, 2026, sets out how customs challenges a dual-use export. Where no licence is presented and customs has evidence the goods may be controlled, it issues a challenge notice: the exporter has 7 working days to respond, customs 15 to decide or refer, MOFCOM 15 for its identification. The goods are not released meanwhile, and major or complex cases have no time limit. For an item whose status may change on November 11, a specification precise enough for the exporter to answer "is this controlled?" within seven working days is the practical defence.
Do not plan around general licences. MOFCOM said in December 2025 that some general licence applications for rare earth items had been approved. They are reported as few, tied to named customers and valid one year, granted to a handful of large rare earth magnet producers, by the press accounts we found. On our reading they sit under the existing regime (No. 18 items in magnets), not under anything No. 70 suspended. There is no public list of holders, and no source says whether one would cover No. 57 or No. 61 items if those resume. Ask your supplier whether it holds one, for which items and customers; treat an answer not in writing as no.
Frequently Asked Questions
Has China extended the export-control suspension to January 10, 2027?
Politically, the arrangement under which it was suspended has been extended to January 10, 2027; neither government has said in writing that the extension covers the suspension itself. Legally, no, as of October 22, 2026: MOFCOM said on September 28 that the Kuala Lumpur joint arrangement had been extended, but No. 70 still reads November 10, 2026 and No. 72 still reads November 27, 2026. We found no announcement amending either.
Do China's rare earth export controls end on November 10, 2026?
No. The seven elements under Announcement No. 18 have needed a dual-use licence since April 2025 and were never suspended. November 10 ends only the suspension of the October 2025 additions.
Are November 10 and November 27 the same deadline?
No. November 10 is in No. 70 and covers the October 2025 additions for all destinations. November 27 is in No. 72 and covers Article 2 of No. 46, which concerns only exports to the United States. Neither government has said whether the January 10 extension covers November 27.
What happens to a shipment in transit on November 10?
We could not find out. Neither No. 70 nor No. 72 has a transitional clause, and we found no customs guidance on which date decides a shipment's treatment. That is why the contract should define the trigger.
References (Public Sources)
- MOFCOM and Customs Announcement No. 70 of 2025 (November 7, 2025), read on MOFCOM's site on October 22, 2026, with MOFCOM's list of policy releases to October 20, 2026.
- MOFCOM Announcement No. 72 of 2025 (November 9, 2025), as reproduced by the Hong Kong Trade and Industry Department; MOFCOM Announcement No. 46 of 2024.
- MOFCOM and Customs Announcements No. 55–58 and MOFCOM Announcements No. 61 and 62 of 2025 (October 9, 2025), as reproduced by MOFCOM, Xinhua and CIRS Group, including No. 61 Articles 6 and 7 (foreign re-exporter filing; compliance notice to foreign importers); Announcement No. 18 of 2025.
- MOFCOM and Customs Announcement No. 52 of 2026 (October 19, 2026); press accounts of Announcements No. 48, 49 and 51 of 2026.
- Regulations on Export Control of Dual-Use Items (State Council, in force December 1, 2024), Articles 15–18 and 24–27.
- MOFCOM, explanation of the eighth round of China–US economic and trade consultations, September 28, 2026, via Xinhua reprints.
- White House fact sheet, September 25, 2026; reporting of the US Treasury Secretary's statement of September 23, 2026.
- Bae, Kim & Lee (BKL), October 13, 2026, and Miller Canfield, October 1, 2026, on the BIS Affiliates Rule suspension.
- Superhero (an Australian investment platform), October 7, 2026; chinacountermeasures.com, October 18, 2026; Federal Register search, October 22, 2026.
- CGTN, December 19, 2025, and Reuters and South China Morning Post reporting on rare earth general licences.
Status reflects public sources as of October 22, 2026; the first instrument either side publishes may change the scenarios within days.
Nami Tech Solutions (NTS) works between Korean buyers and Chinese producers order by order, and the November dates change only part of that work. Our part is determining for each item, before we quote, which announcement controls it now and which would after a lapse; running the licence and end-user-certificate procedure where needed, and asking the exporter in Chinese for the acceptance date and printed validity; and writing the licence contingency into the contract as an ordinary term keyed to the declaration date rather than to a date in the news.
